This page contains my personal predictions about various topics, tracked over time to improve forecasting accuracy.
The status indicator reflects the maturity of the content: • rough — Initial thoughts, unstructured • growing — Being actively developed • evergreen — Stable, well-developed content • withered — No longer being maintained This helps readers understand the completeness of the content.
The confidence tag expresses how well-supported the content is, or how likely its overall ideas are right. This uses a scale from "impossible" to "certain", based on the Kesselman List of Estimative Words: 1. "certain" 2. "highly likely" 3. "likely" 4. "possible" 5. "unlikely" 6. "highly unlikely" 7. "remote" 8. "impossible" Even ideas that seem unlikely may be worth exploring if their potential impact is significant enough.
The importance rating distinguishes between trivial topics and those which might change your life. Using a scale from 0-10, content is ranked based on its potential impact on: - the reader - the intended audience - the world at large For example, topics about fundamental research or transformative technologies would rank 9-10, while personal reflections or minor experiments might rank 0-1.
This section contains my ongoing predictions, rated by confidence and tracked over time. Each prediction includes a confidence rating, category, status, and expiry date (if applicable). Use the search and filter controls above to find specific predictions by topic or category.