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Predictions

This page contains my personal predictions about various topics, tracked over time to improve forecasting accuracy.

status: Growing

Status Indicator

The status indicator reflects the maturity of the content: • rough — Initial thoughts, unstructured • growing — Being actively developed • evergreen — Stable, well-developed content • withered — No longer being maintained This helps readers understand the completeness of the content.

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certainty: likely

Confidence Rating

The confidence tag expresses how well-supported the content is, or how likely its overall ideas are right. This uses a scale from "impossible" to "certain", based on the Kesselman List of Estimative Words: 1. "certain" 2. "highly likely" 3. "likely" 4. "possible" 5. "unlikely" 6. "highly unlikely" 7. "remote" 8. "impossible" Even ideas that seem unlikely may be worth exploring if their potential impact is significant enough.

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importance: 7/10

Importance Rating

The importance rating distinguishes between trivial topics and those which might change your life. Using a scale from 0-10, content is ranked based on its potential impact on: - the reader - the intended audience - the world at large For example, topics about fundamental research or transformative technologies would rank 9-10, while personal reflections or minor experiments might rank 0-1.

A mathematical proof will be found that is too complex for humans to verify without AI assistance by 2030

60%
Mar 10, 2024→Dec 31, 2030
Active

A proof of the Riemann Hypothesis will be published and verified by 2035

25%
Mar 1, 2024→Dec 31, 2035
Active

A new mathematical notation system optimized for digital environments will gain significant adoption by 2028

60%
Feb 18, 2024→Dec 31, 2028
Active

Virtual reality will be used in at least 25% of university mathematics courses by 2029

40%
Feb 10, 2024→Dec 31, 2029
Active

A new form of digital literature combining interactive elements and traditional narrative will emerge as a distinct genre by 2027

80%
Jan 25, 2024→Dec 31, 2027
Active

A new programming language specifically designed for mathematical computation will gain widespread adoption by 2027

50%
Jan 5, 2024→Dec 31, 2027
Active

A major breakthrough in P vs NP will occur before 2030

30%
Jan 3, 2024→Dec 31, 2030
Active

Poetry written with AI assistance will win a major literary prize before 2026

45%
Dec 5, 2023→Dec 31, 2026
Active

A major social media platform will collapse and lose over 80% of its user base by 2026

55%
Nov 20, 2023→Dec 31, 2026
Active

Large language models will be integrated into standard mathematical research workflows by 2026

85%
Nov 15, 2023→Dec 31, 2026
Active

Blockchain technology will be integrated into academic publishing to verify research integrity by 2026

45%
Oct 28, 2023→Dec 31, 2026
Failed

Personalized education based on cognitive science will become standard in at least 30% of schools by 2029

70%
Oct 12, 2023→Dec 31, 2029
Active

Classical education methodologies will see a renaissance in online learning platforms by 2027

75%
Sep 22, 2023→Dec 31, 2027
Active

Traditional universities will see a 30% decline in enrollment for computer science degrees by 2028

35%
Sep 18, 2023→Dec 31, 2028
Active

Quantum computing will solve a practically relevant problem that classical computers cannot by 2028

65%
Aug 30, 2023→Dec 31, 2028
Active

Handwritten mathematical notation will be accurately digitized by AI with over 99% accuracy by 2025

90%
Jul 15, 2023→Dec 31, 2025
Succeeded

About the Predictions Page

This section contains my ongoing predictions, rated by confidence and tracked over time. Each prediction includes a confidence rating, category, status, and expiry date (if applicable). Use the search and filter controls above to find specific predictions by topic or category.

2026.10.04 23:00:52 in Naperville, IL
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