Return to Notebooks

Antarctica

Notes on Antarctica's scientific presence, treaties, political tension, and various conspiracies.

start: 2026.04.08, 23:58 · end: 2026.04.08, 23:58
status: In Progress

Status Indicator

The status indicator reflects the current state of the work: - Abandoned: Work that has been discontinued - Notes: Initial collections of thoughts and references - Draft: Early structured version with a central thesis - In Progress: Well-developed work actively being refined - Finished: Completed work with no planned major changes This helps readers understand the maturity and completeness of the content.

· certainty: likely

Confidence Rating

The confidence tag expresses how well-supported the content is, or how likely its overall ideas are right. This uses a scale from "impossible" to "certain", based on the Kesselman List of Estimative Words: 1. "certain" 2. "highly likely" 3. "likely" 4. "possible" 5. "unlikely" 6. "highly unlikely" 7. "remote" 8. "impossible" Even ideas that seem unlikely may be worth exploring if their potential impact is significant enough.

· importance: 10/10

Importance Rating

The importance rating distinguishes between trivial topics and those which might change your life. Using a scale from 0-10, content is ranked based on its potential impact on: - the reader - the intended audience - the world at large For example, topics about fundamental research or transformative technologies would rank 9-10, while personal reflections or minor experiments might rank 0-1.


Antarctica has got to be one of the most ethereal places on earth. With an area of ≈5.5M sq mi (≈14.2M km²) it is 98% ice-covered, ≈13.9M km² of which is ice, with an average ice thickness of 2.16 km and a total ice volume of 26.5M km³. Antarctica holds ≈70% of Earth's total fresh water, ≈90% of all the ice on earth, and ≈9.5% of the global land area. If it all melted we would see a sea level rise of 58–65 m (190–213 ft), with West Antarctica alone contributing ≈3.3 m. For context on size: US 9.8M km², EU 10.5M km², AUS 7.7M km², and Antarctica a staggering 14.2M km². Temperatures can also get ludicrously cold here, with the coldest recorded temperature being in Vostok at -89.2 °C (-128.6 °F), an average interior temperature of -57 °C, a wind speed record of 327 km/h at Commonwealth Bay, and annual precipitation of ≈50–200 mm which does classify Antarctica as a desert. When I was a bit younger I frequented maladaptive daydreaming of what it would be like to take up residence in a place so glorious. Sadly this hasn't stopped even since learning about the Antarctic Treaty. The Antarctic Treaty of 1959, with 57 current signatories, is responsible for Antarctic governance. The treaty demilitarizes the continent and freezes claims to territory. Seven states hold formal territorial claims (Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway, UK), three of which overlap in the Antarctic Peninsula, whereas Russia and the United States could be more fairly classed as semi-claimants because they reserve the right to make a formal territorial claim in the future. The Treaty's Article IV is a masterpiece, neither validating nor extinguishing existing claims, simply suspending them in legal permafrost.

The scientific presence in Antarctica is fairly tame: a population of ≈1,000 people across all stations in the winter, with the summer reaching ≈5,000 people. The tourist presence is fairly healthy however, with ≈100,000 per year (a significant number when compared to just the 90s). The continent is effectively the planet's primary climate archive, with sites like Concordia (Dome C) and Vostok preserving trapped atmospheric gases dating back hundreds of thousands of years. In early 2025, the Beyond EPICA project successfully drilled a 2,800 m ice core representing more than 1.2 million years of Earth's climate history. Subglacial research is just as interesting, with scientists using radar altimetry data from the ESA's CryoSat-2 to identify 85 new subglacial lakes beneath the ice. Currently the most pressing issue with relation to the continent is likely that of projected Antarctic ice loss, with various models of sea-level contributions ranging from sustainable to a tipping point referred to as "MICI" (Marine Ice Cliff Instability), the point at which West Antarctica could raise global sea levels by meters within just centuries.

Some think the amount of conspiracy involving Antarctica is inane, and slightly disproportionate at best. The main conspiracy clusters seem to surround a few ideas. Operation Highjump, the chief among them, is rooted in two real events: the 1938–39 German expedition to Dronning Maud Land, and the 1946–47 U.S. military operation involving 13 ships and nearly 5,000 personnel. A 2007 paper in Polar Record, "Hitler's Antarctic Base: The Myth and the Reality," supposedly debunks this. Another largely popular theory, the Hollow Earth, traces to John Cleves Symmes Jr., a U.S. Army officer who spent his life pushing the narrative of a hollow earth accessible through the poles. His theory surfaced in Poe's The Narrative of Arthur Gordon Pym and remains the ancestral source of most of the related theories. Another I have frequently heard is the ancient civilization / Atlantis theory, which seems to draw upon Hapgood's crustal displacement theory. The theory which I have seen taking the most relevant public hit is one that belongs to the Flat Earthers: the "Ice Wall" theory. This one reframes the Ross Ice Shelf as the boundary wall of a disc-shaped world. Lastly, the important theory to note is that of Alien Technology, which is fairly adjacent to the ancient civilization theories and centers loosely around Admiral Byrd's post-Operation Highjump statements and is only aggrandized by the continent's general inaccessibility.

See Also

To Read

Foundational

Papers

Geopolitics

History

Conspiratorial

Antarctica quick reference stats
Antarctica — quick reference stats.
Landsat mosaic map of Antarctica
Landsat Image Mosaic of Antarctica (LIMA) Project.
Historical map of Antarctica
Historical map of Antarctica.
Antarctic penguins
Penguins on the Antarctic ice.
Piri Reis map of 1513
The Piri Reis map, 1513.
Location of study region and timeline of glaciation
Location of study region and timeline of glaciation.

permanent link Notebooks RSS feed